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Power Distance Speed and Climbs

Just something to amuse those with the relevant knowledge.
I have a question and wonder if anyone can offer a rule of thumb to help.
If you plan a ride on a flat route on a day with minimal wind and warm weather you can reasonably expect to ride at a high average speed for say 40 to 50 miles. I would think 20+mph more than reasonable for a club ride.
If you introduce a strong wind and cold conditions I expect that to drop by 2mph approx.
Now introduce hills and you have much more energy consumed.
My rule of thumb is 1mph less in speed for every 200ft in 10miles so 50 miles flat 2.5 hrs....50 miles 1000ft add 6 mins...5000ft add 30 mins and average 15mph
Depends on the steepness of the gradients as 2-5%incline is easier to power up than 15-20% and the length of incline is also a factor in how much energy you can expend to get to the top.
Just wondering if any of you power meter nurds have done this .
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